Despite the importance of understanding the effect of climate change on the abandonment of the Jornada Mogollon culture in southern New Mexico, few studies have directly addressed the possibility that cool, wet conditions associated with the onset of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1400-1850 A.D.) could have been a contributing factor. Here we report stratigraphic evidence of increased flooding and overbank sedimentation in the Three Rivers drainage basin during the Medieval Warming Period (MWP)-Little Ice Age (LIA) Transition. Low magnitude flooding events started at the end of the MWP (ca. 900-1300 A.D.) sometime before 1220 A.D. Construction dates of 1337-1345 A.D. for the Three Rivers Ruin (LA 1231) in the Three Rivers drainage, make it likely that abandonment occurred in the latter half of the 14th century. Thus, abandonment of residential sites along the Three Rivers drainage most likely occurred just before high magnitude flooding events associated with onset of the LIA around 1390 A.D. Our data suggests that climatic change associated with the MWP-LIA transition dramatically affected settlement patterns and lifeways of the Jornada Mogollon culture. Although extensive drought or raids from non-agricultural groups most likely played a role in the collapse of their society, flooding associated with the onset of LIA along the mountain drainages in southern New Mexico could have been a major contributing factor.
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